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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 7-M.King FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 27, and recovers at LV 28. 7-M.King punts 47 yards to DET 11. 15-G.Tate to DET 11 for no gain (18-A.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.63 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 58, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model