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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 2

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 8-N.Novak 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +3.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.39 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 2, worth +0.76 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP