Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 63

Houston Texans 24 – New York Jets 17

(2:29) 9-S.Lechler punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.76 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 63, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model