Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 76

Houston Texans 24 – New York Jets 17

(3:19) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to NYJ 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 41 for 10 yards (52-B.Peters).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model