Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 72

Houston Texans 24 – New York Jets 10

(7:24) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to NYJ 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 27 for 12 yards (45-J.Prosch).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.42 EP
57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model