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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 67

New York Jets 10 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 23 for 3 yards (58-E.Henderson). FUMBLES (58-E.Henderson), and recovers at HOU 23. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 23 for no gain (58-E.Henderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.55 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model