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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 56

Houston Texans 10 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.39 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -1.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model