Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 69

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to NYJ 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 24 for 4 yards (52-B.Peters, 57-J.Tuggle). (The Punt Hangtime was 4.41 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.64 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model