Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 65

New York Jets 3 – Houston Texans 10

(1:54) 4-R.Quigley punts 49 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 18 for 2 yards (41-B.Skrine).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.35 EP
72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model