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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 22

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(8:25) 8-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.30 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP