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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Kansas City Chiefs
4th & 1 at the 1
Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0
What Actually Happened
(2:13) 92-D.Poe up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.56 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 1, worth -0.14 EP
KICK
+1.64 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT
-0.60 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
