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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 28-M.Gordon right guard to LAC 24 for no gain (29-E.Berry).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.82 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model