Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 53

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 5-M.Scifres punts 40 yards to KC 13, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 19-J.Maclin. PENALTY on LAC-47-M.Windt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.91 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -2.83 EP

KICK -1.69 EP

21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
79% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model