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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LAC 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-J.Fleming.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model