Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 48

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

(2:23) 5-M.Scifres punts 34 yards to KC 14, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 19-J.Maclin.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.88 EP
75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.30 EP

KICK -0.89 EP

31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
69% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model