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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 5-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model