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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 1-P.McAfee punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.64 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP