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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 25

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(:57) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.27 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model