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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 1-P.McAfee punts 51 yards to ATL 24, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.28 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 32, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP