Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to IND 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-Q.Bray pushed ob at ATL 38 for 42 yards (5-M.Bosher). PENALTY on IND-56-D.Adongo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.47 EP
60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 77, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model