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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 49

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(:39) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to IND 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model