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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 29

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(1:42) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.07 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model