4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(4:43) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short middle to 14-S.Diggs [95-D.Jones].

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model