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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 27 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(6:25) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 36 yards to MIN 11, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.88 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP