4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 27 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(10:27) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 50 yards to MIN 9, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.18 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP