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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 41

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.68 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP