Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 95

Green Bay Packers 19 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(4:46) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 48 yards to MIN 47, Center-61-B.Goode. 35-M.Sherels to 50 for 3 yards (48-J.Thomas). PENALTY on MIN-34-A.Sendejo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 47.

The Three Options

GO -3.82 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.56 EP
68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 95, worth -5.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model