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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 24

Green Bay Packers 16 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(10:18) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.20 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model