Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Green Bay Packers 6

(12:42) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to GB 33, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.43 EP
73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model