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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 78-C.Brown reported in as eligible. 20-D.McFadden up the middle to DAL 49 for 4 yards (21-B.Grimes).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.91 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model