4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 50

Miami Dolphins 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 4-M.Darr punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.23 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 50, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model