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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 11

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(9:23) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model