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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to DAL 4, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +4.00 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -1.62 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth +0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model