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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 7 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 4-M.Darr punts 35 yards to DAL 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.97 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model