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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 6-C.Jones punts 54 yards to MIA 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-J.Landry to MIA 42 for 12 yards (89-G.Escobar).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.67 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 84, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 42, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model