Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to DAL 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 13-L.Whitehead pushed ob at DAL 19 for no gain (52-K.Sheppard). PENALTY on DAL-15-D.Street, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DAL 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.72 EP
70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model