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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 84

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to ARI 37, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.45 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 84, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 42, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP