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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 2-D.Butler punts 55 yards to CIN 16, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.90 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -2.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP