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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to CIN 17, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.37 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP