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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 16

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(12:43) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu to ARI 6 for 10 yards (26-R.Johnson). ARI-26-R.Johnson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model