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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 34 for 6 yards (36-S.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model