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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 13

New England Patriots 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model