Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 77

New England Patriots 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to NYG 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-D.Harris to NYG 31 for 11 yards (18-M.Slater). NE-18-M.Slater was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-46-J.Morris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 30. Officially, a return for 10 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 77, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model