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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 11

New York Giants 23 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 3-J.Brown 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model