Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 80

New York Giants 23 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to NE 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 34 for 7 yards (51-Z.DeOssie). PENALTY on NE-23-P.Chung, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 29. Officially, a punt return for 2 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model