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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 35

New York Giants 20 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(:54) 3-J.Brown 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model