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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 53

New York Giants 20 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to NE 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-D.Amendola to NYG 7 for 82 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.99 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model