Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 79

New England Patriots 10 – New York Giants 20

(8:09) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to NYG 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-D.Harris to NYG 44 for 17 yards (53-E.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model