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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 20

New York Giants 17 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 3-J.Brown 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model