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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 53

New England Patriots 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to NYG 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-D.Harris to NYG 16 for 3 yards (18-M.Slater). PENALTY on NE-38-B.Bolden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 16.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.22 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.47 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP